The problem of testing

21 May 2020

Online some friends and I have been swapping ideas about covid-19 testing and that got me thinking about some of the tricky decisions the government (or health authorities) are facing.…

New covid analysis – a critique

15 May 20207 Sep 2020

The headline of the Daily Mirror caught my eye on the BBC news website this morning where it claimed that nearly one third of the UK population had had Covid-19.…

Building models V: Epilogue

14 Apr 202028 Apr 2020

In part I of this blog series, I tried to explain the ideas behind doing the whole modelling exercise, the maths of the SIR model and fictional virus, Divoc-91; in…

Building models IV: Findings

14 Apr 202014 Apr 2020

In part I of this blog series, I tried to explain the ideas behind doing the whole modelling exercise, the maths of the SIR model and Divoc-91; in part II…

Building models III: The build

14 Apr 2020

In part I of this blog series I tried to explain the SIR model and in part II I started to use the published data on covid-19 to get some…

Building models II: Parameters

14 Apr 202015 Apr 2020

In part I of this blog series I tried to explain the SIR model, but I now need to try and use the science and medical literature to work out…

Building models I: Introduction

14 Apr 202015 Apr 2020

Over the last week or so I've built my own mathematical infectious disease model. I've done this for many different reasons (which I'll discuss below), but what started off as…